这5个亚洲国家将占55％的世界生物质增长量
2018-11-30
预计中国将在未来十年内领先并增加12GW。
China is expected to lead the pack and add 12GW in the next decade.
亚洲是否能够应对主导生物质行业的挑战？ BMI Research在一份报告中称，中国、印度、日本、泰国和马来西亚等5个国家是全球最大的生物质容量增长市场。
Is Asia up to the challenge of dominating the biomass sector? BMI Research has put five countries on its cards for the top global biomass capacity additions markets, namely China, India, Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia, it said in a report.
预计这些市场将占2017年至2027年全球产能增加量的55％，并在此期间使亚洲在全球总装机容量中的份额从33％增加到39％。
Together, these markets are projected to represent 55% of global capacity additions between 2017 and 2027 and grow Asia's share of total installed biomass capacity globally from 33% to 39% over this timeframe.
预计中国将在未来十年内占总生物质增加量的近30％，总计增加12GW。 印度将成为增长速度为6GW的第二大扩张市场。
China is expected to make up close to 30% of total biomass capacity additions over the coming decade, adding 12GW in total. India will be the second fastest expanding market with its 6GW of capacity additions.
“这两个国家拥有大量的生物质残余物，农业、林业和废物产生的原料可以用于发电，”BMI Research说。
“These two countries have substantial access to biomass residue, with agribusiness, forestry and waste generating feedstock that can be be incinerated for power generation,” BMI Research said.
中国甚至有望超过巴西，并在2019年成为全球最大的生物质市场。“中国利用广泛基础活动产生的残余物，”BMI Research表示。
China is even projected to overtake Brazil and become the largest biomass market globally by 2019. “The country leverages residue from a broad base of activities,” the firm said.
其中包括从收获粮食留下的残余物，玉米、水稻、棉花和小麦的秸秆，秸秆在中国中部和东北部地区特别有潜力。“然而，林业衍生的生物质原料将在中国南部和中部地区具有更大的潜力，该区域的生物质行业潜力更为突出，”它补充道。
These include residues left from the food harvest, with straw and stalks from maize, rice, cotton and wheat being of particular potential in central and north-eastern parts of the country. “Whereas, forestry derived biomass feedstock will have greater potential in southern and central parts of China where such industry is more prominent,” it added.
中国还为生物质行业制定了雄心勃勃的增长目标，目标是到2020年安装15GW的容量，到2030年增加到30GW。“我们预计中国将超越这些目标，到2019年达到其近期目标，总容量在 2020年达到17GW，”BMI Research表示。
China has also adopted ambitious growth targets for the sector, aiming to have 15GW of capacity installed by 2020, rising to 30GW by 2030. “We expect China to outperform these targets, and reach its near-term target by 2019, with total capacity in 2020 amounting to 17GW,” BMI Research said.
这与中国政府的第13个五年计划有关，该计划预计到2020年生物质能产出相当于5800万吨煤的热量和电力。中国国家能源局（NEA）还概述了多项举措，如直接与农业废弃物的热电联产替代煤。
This ties into the government's 13th five-year plan, where the biomass is envisioned to generate heat and electricity that is equivalent to 58 million tonnes of coal by 2020. The National Energy Bureau of China (NEA) also outlined multiple initiatives such as directly replacing coal with agricultural waste in combined heat & electricity generation were outlined.
“这与我们的观点一致，到2027年，该行业的规模将增加到25.5GW，”BMI Research表示。
“This ties into our view that by 2027, the size of the sector will have increased to 25.5GW,” BMI Research said.
由于生物质项目“大量积压”并获得有吸引力的上网电价，该BMI Research对日本也持乐观态度。“截至2017年3月，这个积压总量为12.4GW，这是因为向开发商提供了有吸引力的激励措施，以支持政府减少日本对进口煤炭和天然气的严重依赖的目标，”它表示。
The firm also has an upbeat view for Japan due to the “substantial backlog” of biomass projects with access to attractive feed-in-tariffs. “This backlog, which totalled 12.4GW as of March 2017, is the result of the attractive incentives offered to developers to support the government's aim to reduce Japan's heavy reliance on imported coal and natural gas,” it said.
虽然BMI Research对增长持乐观态度，并预测2017年至2020年期间有1.5GW的生物质能力将上线，但预计产能增加仍将落后于日本庞大的批准积压，并且长期内将大幅放缓。
Whilst BMI Research is upbeat on growth and forecasts 1.5GW of biomass capacity to come online between 2017 and 2020, capacity additions are still expected to underperform Japan's sizeable approval backlog and to slow substantially over the longer term, however.
“这是由于政府为遏制项目进度而作出的规定，所有FiT申请者必须在2017年4月之前建立电网连接，确保大部分项目积压将无法有进展”。 “大型项目的FiT也已降低。”
“This is due to provisions made by the government to curb the amount of projects progressing, with all FiT applicants being required to have grid connections as of April 2017, ensuring that a large portion of the project backlog will fail to progress,” the firm said. “The FiT for larger projects has also been reduced.”
“这两项举措将缓解FiT积压的进一步积累，并促使我们认为该行业的增长将在2020年后放缓，”它补充道。
“Both moves will mitigate a further build-up in the FiT backlog and feeds into our view that growth in the sector will slow post-2020,” it added.
根据该报告，未来十年全球生物质总装机容量可能增长超过三分之一，到2027年将达到近160GW。“这意味着2017年至2027年间生物质能力增长平均为3.2％，相对而言，分别低于我们预测风电和太阳能行业的增长率7％和11.7％，“它表示。
According to the report, the world’s total installed biomass capacity could expand by more than a third over the coming decade, reaching nearly 160GW by 2027. “This means that biomass capacity growth will average 3.2% between 2017 and 2027, a rate that is relatively slower than the equivalent 7% and 11.7% growth rates we forecast for the wind and solar sectors respectively,” it said.
预计生物质能源在安装的非水电可再生能源总量中的份额将从2017年的11.3％下降到2027年的7.5％。
Biomass power's share of total installed non-hydropower renewables is forecast to decline from the 11.3% registered over 2017 to 7.5% by 2027.
